Библиотека/Торговля и инвестиции/

Gold Outlook (Обзор рынка золота)

Edel Tully 24.11.2011

More of the same drivers in 2012: high volatility and elevated cross-asset correlations, continued uncertainty on sovereign stress, and doubts about sustainability of global recovery Eurozone sovereign crisis to get worse, before it gets better
Situation to intensify, potentially resulting in a ‘big bang’ that will eventually result to Eurobonds
High political risk on both sides of the Atlantic: regime changes
Low interest rate environment: most major central banks to maintain low policy rates for longer, and easing inflation in EM economies allowing for policy easing
Our economists expect global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2012 from estimated 3.2% in 2011
Reflects divergence: Eurozone to dip into recession in H1 2012, bringing down full-year forecast to 0.2% from 1.0%; US growth expected to hold at 2.3% from estimate of 1.8% in 2011
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